Economy
-
This economist studied 400 years of recessions. His bleak conclusion: stop trying to predict them
In the early 18th century, the American colonies suffered a depression-level economic contraction. There was no war. No financial panic. No obvious villain—except, as it turns out, Blackbeard. Atlantic piracy had reached its peak, blockading the port of Charleston and choking off trade routes from the Caribbean to Long Island. Trade collapsed. The money supply
-
Driving less, canceling vacations, and tightening budgets: All the ways Americans are coping with soaring gas prices
The war in Iran has done what once seemed impossible: forced Americans to rethink the idea of driving everywhere. The conflict in the Middle East itself might be teetering on a tentative ceasefire, but higher gasoline prices are likely here to stay. The average price for a gallon of regular gasoline on Friday was $4.54,
-
Iran may have a higher tolerance for economic pain—but the pain is excruciating as regime reveals 100% inflation in just days on some items
Iran’s regime has so far withstood U.S. and Israeli bombardment, but the economic forces that sparked the most serious conflict in decades have only gotten more severe. Spiraling inflation and a collapsing currency set off mass protests in late December and early January, prompting a brutal crackdown that is estimated to have left tens of
-
Ray Dalio: the ‘heart attack’ of America’s debt crisis is just the beginning of a ‘great turbulence’ that will reshape the country
Ray Dalio has been warning for years that America’s debt problem could trigger an economic “heart attack.” Now he’s saying that’s only part of the story. The billionaire founder of Bridgewater Associates is widening his alarm, arguing in a recent conversation with The New York Times‘ Ross Douthat that the U.S. is entering a period of
-
The job market is healing for everyone—except in the office
The U.S. labor market added 115,000 jobs in April, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday, beating economist expectationsand marking the second straight month of gains. The unemployment rate held at 4.3%. After a 2025 where monthly job growth averaged an anemic 10,000, the 2026 average is now 76,000—enough of an improvement that economists are
-
U.S. economy surprises with 115,000 new jobs created in April
America’s employers a delivered a surprising 115,000 new jobs last month despite an economic shock from the Iran war. Hiring was better than the 65,000 forecasters had expected, though it decelerated from the 185,000 jobs created in March. The unemployment rate remained at a low 4.3%. The Iran war has caused the biggest disruption of
-
Wall Street piles into ‘NACHO’ bet on looming oil shortages in June
Good morning. On Fortune’s radar today: AI’s rampant token fraud problem. Markets: Stocks fall as shooting resumes in the Gulf. The ceasefire is still in effect, Trump says. Wall Street’s new “NACHO trade.” Oil begins to run out in June, J.P. Morgan warns. The surprisingly good news about unemployment. The economics of being unhappy. Quick
-
The $39 trillion debt is set to surpass its postwar peak—and the math says Washington can’t simply cut its way out
By the time President Harry Truman left office in 1953, the United States had spent the better part of a decade paying down the debt it had run up to win World War II. The peak—reached in 1946—was 106% of GDP, a number so large that policymakers spent a generation treating it as the high-water
-
Whirlpool has a word for what the Iran War is doing to its industry: recession
Whirlpool has a word for what’s happening to its business. Two, actually, and both of them are “recession.” On the company’s first-quarter earnings call Wednesday, CEO Marc Bitzer and North America president Juan Carlos Puente both reached for the same term to describe what the war in Iran has done to U.S. appliance demand. Industry
-
Americans owe $1.68 trillion on car loans — more than credit card debt and as much as all federal student loans
Some types of debt seem inescapable. Tens of millions of American are saddled with mortgages, student loans, credit card debt or a combination of the three. But there’s another place where Americans also carry huge outstanding liabilities: in their garages. Cars are rivaling everything else in terms of debt bondage for everyday Americans. Roughly one