Economy
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Trump, the $39 trillion national debt, rosy growth assumptions and the question of ‘a sustainable path’
President Trump’s fiscal year 2027 budget is built on a single, load-bearing bet: that the U.S. economy can grow at 3% annually for the next decade. The White House says that growth will flood federal coffers with new tax revenue and eventually bend the national debt, now sitting at over $39 trillion, onto a downward…
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Top economist Mark Zandi says the indicator that has called every recession since WWII just signaled we’re already in one
Economists have spent months debating if a recession is on the horizon. One economic indicator predicts most of those arguments are already moot. Mark Zandi, the top economist at Moody’s Analytics, said the U.S. economy could already be in a recession, according to the Vicious Cycle Index (VCI), an economic indicator Zandi and his colleagues…
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Small businesses are ‘doing fine.’ That’s a problem for the U.S. Chamber of Commerce
Small businesses see what’s happening in Iran as an omen of tough times ahead, and it may just mean a bigger loss for Main Street in the coming months. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce’s Small Business Index, which measures small business owner sentiment, fell to 67.0 in the first quarter, retreating further from its all-time…
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AI is cutting 16,000 U.S. jobs a month — and Gen Z is taking the brunt, Goldman Sachs says
New research by Goldman Sachs economists finds that AI is already a measurable drag on the U.S. job market — erasing roughly 16,000 net jobs per month over the past year, with the pain falling hardest on Gen Z and entry-level workers. Goldman’s breakdown shows AI substitution wiped out roughly 25,000 jobs per month in…
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‘Skunk at the party’: Jamie Dimon warns of recession risks amid ongoing wars—but also stagflation
Jamie Dimon mentioned “America” more than 80 times in his 2026 annual letter to shareholders, laying out goals for improving the country’s infrastructure, military, and the American dream. He also mentioned one word once that could jeopardize those very goals: stagflation. The JPMorgan Chase CEO warned of the economic dangers of protracted foreign conflicts, including…
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Massive debt makes the U.S. one of the world’s most vulnerable countries in the energy crisis, market veteran warns
The world has never faced a crisis while loaded with so much debt, making the U.S. especially vulnerable despite being the world’s biggest oil producer, according to Ruchir Sharma, chair of Rockefeller International, the global investment strategy arm of Rockefeller Capital Management. In a Financial Times op-ed on Sunday, he warned that this lack of…
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Even if Iran’s regime outlasts Trump, it may not survive reconstruction of the shattered economy, Mideast expert says
Tehran has been embolden by its ability to maintain tight control over the Strait of Hormuz and its own population. But even if the regime survives the war against the U.S. and Israel, its biggest challenge may come afterward. For now, there’s little sign of de-escalation as President Donald Trump has vowed to obliterate Iran’s…
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Trump risks confidence in U.S. role as guardian of global shipping
Of all the things Donald Trump has done to disrupt global commerce, from levying punitive tariffs to tearing up trade deals, few would be as consequential as withdrawing and leaving the rest of the world to secure the Persian Gulf. The move, which the US president has repeatedly threatened as his war with Iran drags…