Economy
-
The global economy has a month—eight weeks at most—to avoid a recession, warns top economist
The countdown is on: The global economy has four weeks, eight at most, if it is to avoid plunging into a recession. That’s the warning from Mohamed El-Erian, the former CEO of PIMCO, who served as chair of President Obama’s Global Development Council. This week, El-Erian said the globe will “avoid a recession, provided—and here’s the
-
The debt crisis Congress has been ignoring could cost the average U.S. household $18,000 a year, according to a Brookings analysis
An excellent new study from the non-partisan Brookings Institution provides an ultra-sobering view of the potential tax increase U.S. families face in taming the runaway debt and deficits crisis that’s been near-roundly ignored in Congress and the White House. We all know the hit to either incomes, shopping tabs, social programs, or a blend of
-
The national debt fix would cost $827 billion—roughly what America spends on its entire military, economists warn
The U.S. would need to cut spending or raise taxes by $827 billion, roughly what it spends on defense, just to keep the national debt burden from doubling by 2054, according to a new report. A report published Wednesday from think tank Cato Institute finds that to maintain the 98% debt-to-GDP ratio figure that the
-
Hilton’s CEO says the economy is actually C-shaped to the benefit of the middle class. Most of his competitors disagree
A cursory glance at today’s travel landscape can be a blinding look at the world of high-end indulgence. From airlines cutting economy seats to the sudden disappearance of affordable hotel rooms, the hospitality and travel sectors are pivoting to treat the high-spending consumer as the only guest who matters. The sector has been a prominent
-
FedEx and UPS are pledging to give their tariff refunds back to consumers, and the sum will likely top $5 billion
The day after the Supreme Court’s decision striking down President Donald Trump’s tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), Commerce Secretary Scott Bessent offered bleak odds of consumers receiving refunds for the $166 billion in tariff revenue collected: “I got a feeling the American people won’t see it.” But after the U.S. Customs
-
Jamie Dimon gets candid about national debt: ‘There will be a bond crisis, and then we’ll have to deal with it’
When it comes to national debt, the main lesson hawks want to impress on policymakers is the cost of inaction: How much the public will ultimately have to pay if officials don’t address deficits. Jamie Dimon, CEO of J.P. Morgan Chase, has echoed this warning in the past. It’s better to get ahead of a
-
More than two-thirds of U.S. schools say they’re unable to afford the cost of student free lunch—and MAHA’s dietary guidelines may make it worse
As more than two-thirds of U.S. public schools say they already can’t sustain free meals for their students, one economist is sounding the alarms and says the Trump administration’s updated dietary guidelines may make these financial troubles even worse. For the 2023-2024 school year, the government provided 4.8 billion lunches to the nearly 29.4 million
-
The $39 trillion national debt just got its own version of the viral Doomsday essay
America has its viral AI doomsday essay. Now it has a debt version. No Labels, the centrist political organization that has spent 16 years pushing bipartisan solutions in Washington, has quietly released Nightmare on Main Street—a fictional “oral history” narrated from the vantage point of 2029, in which a cascade of weak Treasury bond auctions triggers
-
GM expects $500 million in Trump’s tariff refunds—just a fraction of the $3.1 billion in tariffs it paid last year
There’s a $500 million windfall General Motors is expecting to help boost its first quarter earnings. The catch? It’s a refund for tariff payments it made to the Trump administration—and it doesn’t come anywhere close to the billions it still has to pay. When the Supreme Court in February struck down tariffs the Trump administration
-
Ray Dalio says the U.S. is ‘certainly in a stagflationary period,’ and what the Fed does next could make or break the economy
American households are already feeling the squeeze of a slower, pricier economy, a situation some observers warn could quickly cascade into a full-blown stagflationary episode—one in which growth stalls and inflation stays sticky. The Federal Reserve’s next move could determine whether those voices are right. For many consumers, the economy already looks like stagflation. Inflation